Source Themes

Using survey experiment pretesting to support future pandemic response

The world could witness another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in the future, prompting calls for research into how social and behavioral science can better contribute to pandemic response, especially regarding public engagement and communication. …

Evidence of a log scaling law for political persuasion with large language models

Large language models can now generate political messages as persuasive as those written by humans, raising concerns about how far this persuasiveness may continue to increase with model size. Here, we generate 720 persuasive messages on 10 U.S. …

How experiments help campaigns persuade voters: evidence from a large archive of campaigns’ own experiments

Political campaigns increasingly conduct experiments to learn how to persuade voters. Little research has considered the implications of this trend for elections or democracy. To probe these implications, we analyze a unique archive of 146 …

Comparing the persuasiveness of role-playing large language models and human experts on polarized U.S. political issues

Advances in large language models (LLMs) could significantly disrupt political communication. In a large-scale pre-registered experiment (n = 4,955), we prompted GPT-4 to generate persuasive messages impersonating the language and beliefs of U.S. …

No association between numerical ability and politically motivated reasoning in a large US probability sample

The highly influential theory of “Motivated System 2 Reasoning” argues that analytical, deliberative (“System 2”) reasoning is hijacked by identity when considering ideologically charged issues—leading people who are more likely to engage in such …

Quantifying the potential persuasive returns to political microtargeting

Much concern has been raised about the power of political microtargeting to sway voters’ opinions, influence elections, and undermine democracy. Yet little research has directly estimated the persuasive advantage of microtargeting over alternative …

Partisans’ receptivity to persuasive messaging is undiminished by countervailing party leader cues

It is widely assumed that party identification and loyalty can distort partisans’ information processing, diminishing their receptivity to counter-partisan arguments and evidence. Here we empirically evaluate this assumption. We test whether American …

Estimating the between-issue variation in party elite cue effects

Party elite cues are among the most well-established influences on citizens’ political opinions. Yet, there is substantial variation in effect sizes across studies, constraining the generalizability and theoretical development of party elite cues …

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the …

Rank-heterogeneous effects of political messages: Evidence from randomized survey experiments testing 59 video treatments

Central to theories of political persuasion is treatment effect heterogeneity—the idea that people respond to political messages in different ways—so persuasion is easier when different messages are targeted to different audiences. The standard …